Surprise, surprise… for the fourth year in a row and the ninth time in the last 15 years, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots find themselves playing for the AFC Championship. Standing in the way of Brady’s sixth Super Bowl appearance is the Indianapolis Colts.
The current Colts vs. Patriots betting odds at Bovada.lv is showing the 13-4 Patriots favored by seven over the 13-5 Colts. With two of the top six scoring teams going head-to-head, the bookies are expecting the scoreboard to be littered with a ton of points – the Colts-Pats over-under is currently 54.
The Colts enter the game having won and covered each of their last three games. While their Andrew Luck led No. 3 offense in the NFL gets most of the credit in Indy, the fact is, their defense has been the key to them peaking at the right time. In their last five games, they held four of their opponents to 13 points or fewer; including just 13 to the Denver Broncos high-octane offense last weekend. No team in the entire NFL has been more successful versus the point spread this season than the Colts; they are now 12-5-1 against the spread.
While Indy has been generous to the NFL betting public as of late, loyal Patriots’ bettors have struggled as of late; failing to cover the number in each of their last three games. The Pats crushed the Colts in each of their two previous match-ups. Last year in the playoffs, New England won 43-22. When they met this past November, the result was very similar – a 42-20 Patriots victory.
Despite the Patriots habit for making it to the AFC Championship game as of late, they’ve also made it a habit for not being able to cover the point spread. During their last five Conference Championship showdowns, they are 0-5 ATS.
Taking seven or more points in NFL Conference Championship games has been a profitable proposition over recent year. The last five times a betting underdog was getting seven or more, they covered the number four times.
Colts vs. Patriots free pick
Despite the Patriots recent dominance over the Colts, Andrew Luck and the Colts are playing better than ever. Combined with the Patriots failing to cover the spread during AFC Championship games recently, scooping up Indianapolis (+7) at Bovada.lv is the play.
Additionally, since given the Colts outstanding play on the defensive side of the ball, in addition to possible inclement weather, the Under (54) is also in play.
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