This Sunday the Seattle Seahawks will try and become the first team in a decade to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in back to back seasons. In their way is the last team to win two Super Bowls in a row – the New England Patriots.
Using the Super Bowl betting lines as an indicator, we should be in for a very good game. During the AFC Championship game two Sundays ago the opening Super Bowl odds favored the Seahawks by three-points. However, as sports betting public witnessed the Patriots abuse the Colts 45-7, online betting shops started receiving a heavy dose of early Patriots betting action. Before the night was through, most sportsbooks had the Super Bowl XLIX spread set at a pick ‘em; in other words a three point move from the opening line just a couple of hours earlier. Despite the healthy line move, early bettors continued to back the Patriots, forcing sportsbooks to move the AFC champs to small favorites.
It’s no secret that the sports betting public have short term memories; often making their bets based off of their teams most recent performance. The Super Bowl XLIX lines movement is a prime example. If the Colts put up somewhat of a fight two weeks ago, the Seahawks would still be favored.
The simple fact is teams come back to earth and sharp bettors are aware of this. An overwhelming football betting trend to back this is the following: the last 27 times a team scored 40 or more points in the playoffs, they covered the point spread in their next game only four times.
Despite the Patriots impressive resume since the start of the millennium, the fact remains that they have come up short in recent Super Bowls. In their last two Super Bowl appearances, they lost outright despite being favored. Additionally, they are 0-4 against the spread in each of their last four Super Bowl showings.
Even though it was completely overblown and we are all tired of hearing about it, you can’t ignore Deflate Gate. Whether or not Tom Brady and the Pats have been gaining a competitive advantage or not, we know two things. For one, all eyes will be on the PSI of New England’s football on Sunday. Secondly and at the very least, DeflateGate has been quite a distraction to Coach Bilichick and Brady. Instead of spending time breaking down film, they were holding press conferences on football air pressure.
Lastly, and most importantly, the Patriots opponent is playing the defending champs. Sure the Seahawks were very fortunate to beat the Packers in the NFC Championship game; however, great teams win those games. Many argue that the Packers should have went for it twice at 4th and goal early in the game. If they were playing any of the other 30 teams they probably do go for it. However, Packers’ Head Coach Mike McCarthy chose the conservative approach of kicking a field goal (twice) because he knew chances of penetrating the Seahawks top-ranked defense for six would be challenging. Championship caliber teams win those games.
Super Bowl XLIX Betting Pick
They Seahawks are the better team. They are poised for the repeat. Considering online betting giant Bovada.lv is offering the Seahawks +2, it’s a no-brainer.
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